Economic Armageddon...Who Cares?
Timing
Like comedy, the secret of good trading is timing.
With regard to trading my timing has been laughable, and the last significant "adjustment" of my assets was (at the time of writing) four years early. (The Benny Hill in me has just spotted the potential in the phrase '"adjustment" of my assets', but alas its already too late....you see, timing lets me down again).
Fortunately I am governed by two Sacred Money Archetypes and my Maverick was tempered by my Accumulator and so my "adjustment" was measured enough to withstand the stupidity of a rigged market. Traders always regard markets as stupid and rigged when on the wrong side of a trade, and beautiful expressions of logic when they right. (I have nearly always regarded them as stupid and rigged!)
Years of trading taught me the truth of Keynes' observation that "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" and so, thanks to my accumulator, I am still in the game. However, whilst even the least economically literate observer cannot argue that the markets are currently rational, it appears that the least economically literate are in charge of policy decisions and so do not be surprised if things carry on as they are for a while.
It is different this time
2016 has seen the worst start to a year ever in the history of stock markets and all those contrarians who have been predicting an economic Armageddon (like me) are polishing off their "I told you so" badges. They will sound impressive as they boast of how their deep out of the money puts are making millions (it always helps to speak a different language if you are talking shit). A favourite phrase of those whose timing stinks (like me) is "better to be three years early than five minutes late", after all this is the "big one" because it's definitely "different this time".
That last phrase "It's different this time" has been the death of many a trader as they hold on to hope in the face of history. History shows that nothing ever changes because markets are driven by emotion and psychology, commonly described as fear and greed. Whether tulips in the 1600s, The South Sea Bubble in the 1700s or Dotcoms in 2000, the result is always the same. A painful return to normal valuations.
So why if the result is always the same do I really believe that it IS different this time?
It may be indulgent but the difference is personal. I feel something very profound is happening, and it has nothing to do with valuations, volatility, bull or bear markets. The change that I am experiencing at a personal level, and observing in so many around me, is in my psychological and emotional make up. In fact I am certain many are also experiencing the physical and neurological differences which are part and parcel of this ongoing shift in consciousness.
The very foundation of our economic system is lack and relies on those primal motivators of fear and greed. Lack is an integral part of the illusion which keeps us small and separate and drives destructive competition. It pits nation against nation, person against person. Heck even religions compete for places in heaven. Only the good get in because there just isn't enough room for everyone! Our economic creativity and technological innovation is largely guided by a 'need' to overcome lack which inevitably locks us in a self perpetuating reality of lack.
However, as many are noticing, fear and greed are losing their grip on individual reality. Marketing is less effective, consumption less satisfying and fear is just plain boring. Whilst these subtle shifts can feel almost flat at first as old desires are absent and the usual motivators become a little "whatever", they are soon replaced with a curiosity and amazement. Amazement as to how we ever fell for that game and as to why others still do and curiosity as to what can be created in the absence of fear.
I used to be captivated by markets, riding the ups and downs, and always with some skin in the game to make it more visceral. It truly IS different this time because I don't care. Just as I puzzle at grown men getting animated about "their" football team as if it is anything other than entertainment, I now look at the markets and economy, at potentially their most explosive point in history, and think "so what".
I am aware of the markets just as I am still aware of the football results. They just are. There is no charge to any of it. In the absence of fear I can no longer be defined by my success or otherwise in an illusory and destructive game, just as I cannot be identified as a fan of a particular team.
As more people reflect on what motivates their choices and organically shift away from those actions driven by fear and greed the less power a destructive and enslaving system will have over them.
love
Bill